A slight discomfort in the throat or change in body temperature leads anyone in times of pandemic to instantly consult the oracle of the 21st century: Google. But this simple action, that of google coronavirus symptoms, carried out en masse, can contribute to precede peak cases anywhere in the world.
A study by University-College London (UCL) and Bar-Ilan University revealed that through the analysis of web searches for symptoms of Covid-19 in a city or region, outbreaks of the disease can be anticipated “17 days in advance”.
The researchers used a model that is currently used to detect cases of seasonal flu (influenza): they created a profile of coronavirus symptoms based on 19 existing epidemiological reports and developed prevalence models through symptom-related searches through Google.
Then, they recalibrated the models based on “public interest bias,” that is, the effect of media coverage on online searches. So, “allowed to predict a peak in cases when applied to Covid-19“says the report.
Where peak cases were predicted
Dr. Vasileios Lampos, in charge of the research, explained that the approach “works in different countries regardless of cultural, socioeconomic and climatic differences” and noted that the university analysis was also “one of the first to find an association between the incidence of coronavirus and searches on symptoms of loss of sense of smell and rash“.
The analysis model allowed for early warnings and allowed “showing the effects of distancing.” In UK, where information bias was adjusted, the study allowed information to be provided to Public Health England (PHE for its acronym, which reports to the UK Ministry of Health) to more accurately predict surges.
The research was also tested on United States, Italy, Australia and South Africa, among others, and the result was similar: the same search pattern in the areas where peaks of cases were later recorded.
“We can use the large number of coronavirus data sets for further experimentation and validation of such techniques in an attempt to complement current epidemiological approaches and be better prepared for the next pandemic,” explained Lampos.
The Covid Symptom List
The symptomatic profile used by the study is determined by the British Ministry of Health:
- New and ongoing dry cough
- Fever
- Loss or changes in smell and taste
